Two Centuries of Farmland Prices in England

Jadevicius, Arvydas, Huston, Simon and Baum, Andrew (2015) Two Centuries of Farmland Prices in England. Saïd Business School WP 2015-8.

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Abstract

The dissemination of robust real estate data can help to improve market efficiency and investment analysis. To provide a perspective on property prices, a long series is vital. While long commercial and residential real estate data series are available, agricultural land is less well served. Comparable series describing long-term price and return histories for farmland in England are fragmented. We redress this data deficiency after considering the methodological complexities involved. The study employs a chain-linking approach to construct a long-term farmland price series for England. It then adjusts the series for inflation to examine real land prices. The resulting two-century series of English farmland prices establishes a basis for a more efficient farmland market analysis.

Notwithstanding issues around long-run chain component heterogeneity, the combined series illuminates English average farmland price dynamics and changing land market fortunes. For more than two centuries English land price real capital returns were positive. Farmland real price growth was 0.33 per cent annually from 1781 to 2013 and 0.71 per cent from 1801 to 2013 as measured by the geometric mean. The series provides prima facie support for land investment, even when ignoring spatial peri-urban opportunities, rental income or tax advantages.

Item Type: Oxford Saïd Research Paper
Keywords: Farmland; Prices; Returns; England; finance
Subject(s): Finance
Date Deposited: 01 Jul 2015 12:35
Last Modified: 27 Nov 2017 12:21
Funders: N/A
URI: http://eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk/id/eprint/5365

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