Forecasting Frequency-Corrected Electricity Demand to Support Frequency Control

Taylor, James and Roberts, Matthew B (2015) Forecasting Frequency-Corrected Electricity Demand to Support Frequency Control. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 31 (3). pp. 1925-1932.

Abstract

Electricity demand forecasts are needed for decisions regarding generation dispatch for lead times as short as just a few minutes. Imbalance between generation and demand causes deviation of the system frequency from its target, which in Great Britain is 50 Hz. This, in turn, causes a change in demand, due largely to motor loads. For Great Britain, the change is estimated to be 2.5% of demand per 1 Hz of frequency deviation from its target. This can be used to calculate the demand that would have occurred if frequency had been at 50 Hz. Modeling and forecasting the resulting frequency-corrected demand provides a better basis for dispatching generation. This paper evaluates methods for forecasting frequency-corrected demand up to 10 min ahead. We introduce an exponential smoothing model that, like the system operator's proposed Kalman filter approach, jointly models frequency and demand. We also evaluate a set of univariate methods applied directly to the series of frequency-corrected demand. These methods have not previously been considered for lead times less than 10 min. In our empirical analysis, the best results were produced by a seasonal exponential smoothing method applied directly to the series of frequency-corrected demand.

Item Type: Article
Subject(s): Management science
Date Deposited: 08 Jul 2016 13:40
Last Modified: 08 Feb 2017 15:36
Funders: not applicable
URI: http://eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk/id/eprint/6193

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