Short term load forecasting and the effect of temperature at the low voltage level

Arora, Siddharth, Haben, Stephen, Giasemidis, Georgios and Ziel, Florian Short term load forecasting and the effect of temperature at the low voltage level. International Journal of Forecasting. (Accepted)

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Abstract

Short term load forecasts will play a key role in the implementation of smart electricity grids. They are required to optimise a wide range of potential network solutions on the low voltage (LV) grid, including integrating low carbon technologies (such as photovoltaics) and utilising battery storage devices. Despite
the need for accurate LV level load forecasts much of the literature has focused on the individual household or building level using data from smart meters or on aggregates of such data. In this study we provide detailed analysis of several state-of-the-art methods for both point and probabilistic LV load forecasts.
We evaluate the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of these methodologies on 100 real LV feeders, for horizons from one to four days ahead. In addition, we also test the effect of temperature (both actual and forecast) on the accuracy of load forecasts. We present some important results on the drivers of forecasts accuracy as well as the empirical comparison of point and probabilistic forecast
measures.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: probabilistic load forecasting, low voltage networks, temperature effects, short term load forecasting, management science
Subject(s): Management science
Date Deposited: 09 Nov 2018 10:52
Last Modified: 09 Nov 2018 10:52
Funders: n/a
URI: http://eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk/id/eprint/7037

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