Debt overhang and monetary policy in Czech Republic

Tsomocos, Dimitrios, Goodhart, C.A.E., Isakov, K.S. and Peiris, M.U. Debt overhang and monetary policy in Czech Republic. HSE Economic Journal. (Accepted)

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We investigate the consequences of excessive international debt overhang as they relate to both debtor and creditor countries. In particular, we assess the impact of monetary policy on financial stability and how it can be used to smooth borrowers, as well as creditors, consumption over the business cycle. Based on [Goodhart, Peiris and Tsomocos, 2018], we establish that an independent countercyclical monetary policy, that contracts liquidity whenever debt grows whereas it expands it when default rises, reduces volatility of consumption. In effect, monetary policy provides an extra degree of freedom to the policymaker. We implement our approach to the Czech and Eurozone area economies during the 1990s. In our model, we introduce endogenous default ά la [Shubik and Wilson, 1977], whereby debtors incur a welfare cost in renegotiating their contractual debt obligations that is commensurate to the level of default. However, this cost depends explicitly on the business cycle and it should be countercyclical. Hence, contractionary monetary policy reduces the volume of trade and efficiency, thus increasing default. This occurs as the default cost increases the associated default accelerator channel engenders higher default rates. On the other hand, lower interest rates increase trade efficiency and, consequently, reduce the amplitude of the business cycle and benefit financial stability. In sum, the appropriate design of monetary policy complements financial stability policy. The modelling of endogenous default allows us to study the interaction of monetary and macroprudential policy.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: debt, default, monetary policy, renegotiation, business cycles, open economy, finance
Subject(s): Finance
Date Deposited: 10 Dec 2018 11:59
Last Modified: 10 Dec 2018 11:59
Funders: Peiris was funded within the framework of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) and by the Russian Academic Excellence Project ‘5-100’. Kanat Isakov acknowledges support from Basic Research Program

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