Cost overruns and demand shortfalls in urban rail and other infrastructure

Flyvbjerg, Bent (2007) Cost overruns and demand shortfalls in urban rail and other infrastructure. Transportation Planning and Technology, 30 (1). pp. 9-30.

Abstract

Risk, including economic risk, is increasingly a concern for public policy and management. The possibility of dealing effectively with risk is hampered, however, by lack of a sound empirical basis for risk assessment and management. This article demonstrates the general point for cost and demand risks in urban rail projects. The article presents empirical evidence that allow valid economic risk assessment and management of urban rail projects, including benchmarking of individual or groups of projects. Benchmarking of the Copenhagen Metro is presented as a case in point. The approach developed is proposed as a model for other types of policies and projects in order to improve economic and financial risk assessment and management in policy and planning.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Urban rail; cost underestimation; cost overrun; demand shortfall; economic risk assessment and management
Subject(s): Project management
Centre: BT Centre for Major Programme Management
Date Deposited: 18 Mar 2011 09:08
Last Modified: 23 Oct 2015 14:05
URI: http://eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk/id/eprint/716

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