Optimism and misrepresentation in early project development

Flyvbjerg, Bent (2009) Optimism and misrepresentation in early project development. In: Williams, Terry M., Samset, Knut and Sunnevåg, Kjell J., (eds.) Making Essential Choices With Scant Information: Front-End Decision Making in Major Projects. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, pp. 147-168. ISBN 9780230205864

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Abstract

Pervasive misinformation about the costs, benefits and risks involved is a big problem in major project development. Consequences of misinformation are cost overruns, benefit shortfalls and waste. This chapter identifies optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation as main causes of misinformation. Bias and misrepresentation are problems throughout the project cycle, but the problems are greatest during early project development, because here measures to curb bias and misrepresentation are weakest. Measures for improving early project development are presented, emphasizing accountability and better methods.

Item Type: Book Section
Keywords: Major projects; decision making; project development; misrepresentation
Subject(s): Project management
Date Deposited: 16 Jun 2011 14:32
Last Modified: 31 Oct 2016 11:08
URI: http://eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk/id/eprint/781

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