Public planning of mega-projects: Overestimation of demand and underestimation of costs

Flyvbjerg, Bent (2008) Public planning of mega-projects: Overestimation of demand and underestimation of costs. In: Flyvbjerg, Bent, Priemus, Hugo and van Wee, Bert, (eds.) Decision-Making on Mega-Projects: Cost-Benefit Analysis, Planning and Innovation. Transport Economics, Management and Policy . Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA, pp. 120-144. ISBN 9781845427375

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Abstract

Despite the enormous sums of money being spent on transportation infrastructure, surprisingly little systematic knowledge exists about the costs, benefits and risks involved. The literature lacks statistically valid answers to the central and self-evident question of whether transportation infrastructure projects perform as forecasted. When a project underperforms, this is often explained away as an isolated instance of unfortunate circumstance; it is typically not seen as the particular expression of a general pattern of underperformance in transportation infrastructure projects. Because knowledge is lacking in this area of research, until now it has been impossible to validly refute or confirm whether underperformance is the exception or the rule.

Item Type: Book Section
Keywords: Mega projects; decision making; cost-benefit analysis; planning
Subject(s): Project management
Centre: BT Centre for Major Programme Management
Date Deposited: 16 Jun 2011 14:53
Last Modified: 23 Oct 2015 14:05
URI: http://eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk/id/eprint/782

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