Eliminating bias in early project development through reference class forecasting and good governance

Flyvbjerg, Bent (2007) Eliminating bias in early project development through reference class forecasting and good governance. In: Sunnevåg, Kjell J., (ed.) Beslutninger på svakt informasjonsgrunnlag: tilnærminger og utfordringer i prosjekters tidlige fase [Decisions Based on Weak Information: Approaches and Challenges in the Early Phase of Projects]. Concept Rapport (17). Concept Program, The Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, pp. 90-110. ISBN 978-82-92506-50-9

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Abstract

Chapter 3 identified as a main problem in large-scale investment projects the existence of optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation with project promoters. A consequence of such bias is a high incidence of cost overruns and benefit shortfalls in projects. This chapter develops a number of measures aimed at eliminating, or at least reducing, optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in project development. The measures include changed governance structures and better planning methods. The aim is to ensure that decisions on whether to build projects or not are based on valid information about costs and benefits, instead of being based on misinformation as is often the case today.

Item Type: Book Section
Keywords: Major projects; decision making; optimism bias; reference class forecasting; governance
Subject(s): Project management
Centre: BT Centre for Major Programme Management
Date Deposited: 16 Jun 2011 15:09
Last Modified: 23 Oct 2015 14:05
URI: http://eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk/id/eprint/784

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