Performance Sampling and Bimodal Duration Dependence

Denrell, Jerker and Shapira, Zur (2008) Performance Sampling and Bimodal Duration Dependence. Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 33 (1). pp. 38-63.


Performance sampling models of duration dependence in employee turnover and firm exit predict that hazard rates will initially be low, gradually rise to a maximum, and then fall. Some empirical duration distributions have bimodal hazard rates, however. In this paper, we present a generalization of the performance sampling model that can account for such deviations from unimodality. While the standard model of performance sampling assumes that the mean and the standard deviation of performance are constant over time, we allow them to change in time, to reflect the fact that tasks may change over time. We derive the hazard rate implied by this more general model and show that it can be bimodal. Using data on turnover in law firms, we show that the hazard rate predicted by these models fit data better than existing models.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: duration dependence, hazard rates, learning, performance sampling
Subject(s): Strategy; Entrepreneurship & Global business
Centre: Faculty of Strategy, Entrepreneurship and International Business
Date Deposited: 19 Oct 2011 13:15
Last Modified: 23 Oct 2015 14:05

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